There are many ways to approach this topic – most prominently, using the current size of the market or that of neighboring industries like the book market. If the US book market has a total turnover of, let’s say, $50 billion, we can start making assumptions about how much of this amount is generated online, and what the potential of a self-publishing author vs. a professionally published author is. 

I think this approach is wrong. 

Because the content industry, as of today, doesn’t really exist. Content today is created and processed in a manual, highly inefficient way. Media products are not part of a larger processing and application system. Knowledge, as the most significant source of value in the industry, is still in a baby state, not much higher developed than in ancient Greece 2500 years ago. There are no systematic problem identification systems and markets, no large scale knowledge unit mass production, no automated knowledge application, feedback loops and re-engineering processes. A publishing company today has as much in common with an advanced knowledge company as Johannes Gutenberg’s printing machine had with a blogging platform.   

To estimate the true market potential of a future content industry, we first need to define and understand what content actually IS. Content is actually everything people can publish, and that other people can absorb into their brains. It is mindware – the stuff that makes up our minds. 

The value of mindware originates from two sources: from the mere pleasure it creates through logical insight or emotional inspiration, and from allowing us to create more value in the physical world by providing us with the mental and behavioral patterns that solve problems. 

While the first source of value is similar to other goods in the sense that it is limited to satisfying a part of our need portfolio, the second one is special. If content includes all mindware that helps us to solve problems and basically create all other kinds of content, it is different from nearly all other goods we know. Because in this case, it’s market potential is unlimited. Let me explain why:   

The idea of a market potential stands in direct correlation with the idea of value creation. The market potential of an industry equals its maximum level of value creation and contribution in the total economic mix of things. For example, the auto-market has a certain maximum size, because it’s unlikely that people will commit more of their resources to it than the healthy equilibrium between the other goods they want.   

But when it comes to content as the tool to generate solutions, things change. Because what exactly is the amount of money people would possibly spent on solutions? Right, it’s 100% of their money. Because everything people want are solutions: solutions for their needs and problems. Now, we have to consider that knowledge is only part of the solution. The other part will be the physical goods and resources required to build the solution. But knowledge always is a part of any solution, and probably the most important part. 

If we apply some simple metrics to the value of knowledge – or conceptual content – in environments where there already are higher developed content based approaches such as construction, machinery and others, the fair share of value conceptual development gets is normally roundabout 10-20% (think about your architect, or engineering blueprints).    

If we assume that the Web 3.0 – a web that effectively unleashes large scale content and knowledge production for all areas of life – is capable of turning our society in an advanced knowledge civilization in that literally every challenge and problem is solved through systematic production and exchange of knowledge, and that the fair share of value the content behind it gets is the same as in developed knowledge industries, that would end up being 10%-20% of… everything. Everything equals the world GDP, which is something around $65 trillion.   

Do I seriously believe that the Web 3.0 has a market potential of $6.5 - $13 trillion? Yes, I do. Because these are not empty figures – these figures represent the largest civilizational leap humankind has ever experienced. If everyone starts systematically producing knowledge, aligning his or her thinking capacities to the market regulated needs of all others, and get’s rewarded instantly based on the true value that was delivered, a few trillion dollars are the least spectacular thing we will witness.